The Fed Blinks.
The Tariffs Don't.

This was the week the story everyone was bracing for — a hawkish Fed marching toward a July rate hike — quietly lost its momentum, undone by one soft jobs number. At the same time, the India-US trade deal edges toward its July 24 crunch point with an old complication now reaching its final procedural stage. Indian markets, caught between the two, basically went nowhere — which, this week, was itself the interesting part.

Flat on the Surface, a Real Swing Underneath

The index ended almost exactly where it started — but the path there wasn't a straight line

Nifty closed at 24,270.85, up a modest 0.94% for the week — but that flat number hides a real swing. The index opened positively, then fell to a weekly low of 23,785 mid-week on profit booking, before buyers stepped back in. Bank Nifty was the standout, gaining 0.85% to close at 58,177, driven by broad buying across private and PSU banks.

The index formed a Doji-like candle on the weekly chart — a classic sign of indecision — while holding support above the 100-week EMA. RSI sits at 48, just under the neutral-50 threshold, so momentum is improving but not yet confirmed bullish. FIIs stayed net sellers for the week — provisional NSE cash-market data put it well above ₹5,000 crore net selling — while DIIs more than absorbed it, buying upwards of ₹14,500 crore net over the same stretch — a pattern that's held through all of June, where FIIs sold a cumulative ₹45,130 crore and DIIs bought ₹76,160 crore. Domestic flows are doing the heavy lifting right now.